Stuck with lower rating

[jeebus]

After the leaderboard was launched, it seems everybody was reset to level 20. I asked about this before:
http://forum.shuffleit.nl/index.php?topic=1710.msg6089
but nobody answered.

Ever since then, I have been playing with significantly worse players (with automatch). In the beginning I rose, but for a while I've been stuck around level 53-55, maybe rising one level some days. I have played maybe 50-80 games in total. Yesterday I actually dropped a level, because I lost 2 games (one due to computer crash) and tied one game because I didn't notice 3-pile, out of maybe 10 games played. Usually I lose 1 out of 10 maybe. Is rising in level supposed to be that slow?

Most games I see very novice play - no strat or bad strat, and only lose because of the normal luck factor. It's getting a bit boring.

I can only assume the top rated players have been playing hundreds of games already since the lauch? Or was not everybody reset to 20? Hoping for a reply this time!

[Philip]

Everyone started with a clean sheet with the introduction of the Glicko-2 rating system and leaderboard. It's a different rating system from isotropish (TrueSkill can't be used in a commercial setting).

Your description of your rating progression sounds normal to me. Note that you don't rise in level merely for winning, you have to perform above the rating's system's expectation.

I can only assume the top rated players have been playing hundreds of games already since the lauch?

The top 5 has played over 1200 games combined since the launch of the rating system, with the least frequent player having logged 194 games.

[markus]

You might want to check http://dominion.lauxnet.com/scavenger/?user=jeebus

What matters for rising is that your actual wins exceed the expected wins. Then, rising can actually go quite fast - and you would only be "stuck" with a rating, if your phi is very small (but that is not happening with the currently chosen sigma).

What makes it harder at the top, is that the matched opponents are weak on average - in your whole history you should win 3/4 games. Only if you manage to win more, you'll rise. And losing a game to a weak opponent due to computer crash hurts a lot.

As a rule of thumb, your mu changes by phi^2*(wins-exp.wins). In your case today (after 7-1 games), that would be 0.35^2 * 1.3=0.16.
1 point in mu corresponds to about 20 levels in the Isotropish leaderboard, or 1 level now is more than 2 levels in Isotropish. So gaining "1 level" is more significant than it used to be.
Still, given your mu>60 in Isotropish, you should probably get to at least mu=2 here.

[markus]

Playing a lot of matches matters in so far at the top as this reduces phi (a 0.1 difference in phi gives 1.5 levels). But that is not the main reason you're further down.

Also, in contrast to Isotropish, phi increases quickly again if you stop playing, or play less than before. So that effect on the level is more transitory than getting a high mu.

[jeebus]

Thanks. I looked at all my games, and it's exactly 70 games. So my estimate was very good. However, my win estimate was not so good. I lost 14 games, so that's exactly 2 out of 10. Still, that's more than 3 out of 4, so I don't know why that keeps me at my current level.

I can't say I understand exactly how this is supposed to work. I just know that the way I'm playing now, losing 2 games out of 10 (which to me seems almost inevitable no matter who you're playing due to the nature of the game), I seem to indeed be "stuck", which doesn't make Dominion Online that much fun for me. Playing IRL I'm fine with playing with significantly worse players, but that's not why I play Dominion online. (Of course before the leaderboard launch I was matched with better players.)

[Cave-O-Sapien]

Thanks. I looked at all my games, and it's exactly 70 games. So my estimate was very good. However, my win estimate was not so good. I lost 14 games, so that's exactly 2 out of 10. Still, that's more than 3 out of 4, so I don't know why that keeps me at my current level.

I think that 8/10 isn't much more than 3/4 in this context. It's enough for your rating to increase (which it has, it looks like it's going from 54 to 56 based on the last 9 games), but it's not enough for a big jump.

As has been suggested, the root problem here might be a matching issue.

[markus]

I agree that better matching (in the sense of more equal opponents) would be good, because closer games are more enjoyable. And I can personally take away more from a loss when my opponent does something reasonable than when he opens Treasure Map/Silver and somehow gets lucky.

But even within the current bounds for an "equal opponent", it's not a problem for the rating system.

[jeebus]

Yes, I was already thinking that the problem might just be that the rating margin used for "equal opponent" might be too wide.

Is it plus/minus 30 just like the default when you start a table? And does that mean 30 in level? So with level 55 I'm being matched with levels down to 25? If so, that seems way too wide. (but looking at my opponents historically it seems that it never went that low, so maybe the margin is something else?)

In any case it seems like a great idea to be able to set that margin when you choose "equal opponent". And I actually found this feature request now by you: :) http://forum.shuffleit.nl/index.php?topic=1749.msg6266

[markus]

Is it plus/minus 30 just like the default when you start a table?

It is about maximum 14.5 levels difference now. If both players have the same phi, that means a maximum difference for mu of about 2. And that means a maximum implied winning probability of about 88%.
Things can get more unequal, if the better player has played less (high phi) than the worse player (low phi).